A new national environmental report estimates that the homes of about 750,000 people are already exposed to inland flooding in a 1% annual likelihood flood event, interest.co.nz reported.
Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 was released by the Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport with Statistics New Zealand. It projects inland flood exposure rising to between 815,000 and 839,000 residents by 2050 under low and high climate scenarios, an estimate the report rates as low confidence.
For rainfall-induced landslides, the homes of about 80,000 people are estimated to be exposed now, rising to between 111,000 and 127,000 by 2050. Coastal flooding exposure is put at about 32,000 people today and between 48,000 and 52,000 by 2050, rated high confidence.
Regionally, around 55% of the population in the Kawerau and Buller districts and about 63% in Wairoa live in homes exposed to inland flooding. The report also notes that every region except Taranaki has had at least one local state of emergency for extreme weather or flooding since Cyclone Gabrielle.
The report says rising disaster risk could leave homes in high-risk areas uninsurable, and stresses its outlooks are assessments of possible futures rather than statements of fact.
